Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 60 | Overall: 50
Hoglund’s stuff plateaued in his first two college seasons, as he showed the same 89-93 mph riding fastball and average breaking ball that he had in high school. His stuff ticked up last fall [2020], however, and he now works at 92-95 for five innings at a time and displays a tighter, harder slider at 84-86. His low-80s changeup serves as a solid third pitch and he can give batters a different look by dusting off a curveball he relied on more as a prepster.
With a durable 6-foot-4 frame, an easy delivery and a history of quality strikes, Hoglund already had a high floor as a back-of-the-rotation starter. Multiple scouts have likened him to a bigger version of Tanner Burns, another SEC right-hander whom the Indians drafted 36th overall last June. Toronto will be patient to see how his stuff and control returns from the surgery, but if it does, it’s possible it got a top-10 talent in this year’s Draft.
