Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! We are going to break down this five-game slate with a couple of large favorites and a couple of closer matches, but first some cleanup. I guess LSB announced their full roster would be in and I missed that news so I apologize, but T1 still ended up optimal in their 2-1 win. TES smacked around LGD as expected and the two favorites I was high on, like the majority of the field, came through, but let's talk about KT. GEN Peanut and Ruler were the X factor in this series. Although KT won game two, it wasn't as convincing as I'd hoped, as they only dropped 11 kills. KT dropped 10 kills in their game three loss that looked doomed after a fight at the first dragon. It was a fun sweat as we would've been sitting pretty if KT dropped 20 kills or so in game three, but alas, none of the underdogs could come through this morning and we were left with all four favorites winning. WBG also performed as I expected and swept IG in a lower kill series. Heartbreak aside, it's time to dive into another five gamer of some LoL DFS!
As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we might not get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on recent lineups. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM EST on Saturday, March 19th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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4:00 AM: NS (-159) vs. HLE (+131)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Canna/Dread/Bdd/Ghost/Peter? for NS, and Dudu/Onfleek/Karis/Samd/Vsta for HLE. Peter played the whole last series and I don't expect Effort to sub in for him but there's always a possibility. These teams are both eliminated from playoffs and face each other in their last match of the split. HLE rides a seven-match loss streak while NS is on a five-game skid. It's not the premier match to watch, but I do think these teams will look to push advantages aggressively, as we have seen flashes of from both in the past, and look to end the season on a high note. Both these teams are abysmal in team stats, ranking bottom three in the league in most. It truly is a toilet bowl which is sad to say considering how much I expected from this NS squad in the beginning of the split.
Looking at the slate from afar, I could see HLE being a popular underdog to help fit in the RNG full stacks, but getting to a V5 full stack with NS is also possible. I'm not even sure recency bias is in effect here as both these teams just keep losing. Both teams have had tougher schedules recently facing mostly playoff teams, and both have been getting swept for the most part. It's a tough sell on either side but one of these teams has to win and it's likely one of them will provide some sort of value. That being said I don't see a sweep here, but I do prefer the NS side as they are the better team on paper. Yes, it's very likely HLE can upset here but I like how Canna and Ghost didn't go down easily last series in their loss to KT. I except a bounceback performance from Bdd against another young mid laner, and Dread has been consistent in the wins and losses for the most part. HLE is definitely in play but I will be fading them on this five-game slate and siding with small NS and some NS team slot one-offs for value, in case this one ends up being pretty back and forth. NS full stacks are in play for me as well as a sweep is definitely possible, but I do prefer fading this match over full stacking either side.
Top NS plays: Bdd, Canna(great one-off tomorrow due to high price/low ownership), FADE, Ghost, TEAM, Dread
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6:00 AM: BRO (+?) vs. DK (-?)
For this LCK match, we should see I have no idea for BRO, could be their challenger roster but they also forfeited the last match due to not having a healthy amount of players. If you want to take shots on BRO's full roster then be my guest, but luckily they face DK and I won't be looking at BRO players tomorrow anyways, even if they were fully healthy. DK's normal starting roster will be in tomorrow. The odds haven't been posted at the time of this writing due to the question marks surrounding BRO's starting roster I assume. Regardless, I am siding with DK in this one.
DK has turned it up slowly since their mid-split slump, and Burdol has solidified himself as the team's top laner and has been performing well at low ownership nearly every slate. Deokdam has been performing similarly to how he was on Nongshim last split, acting as the team's primary carry. This team is clicking on all cylinders and will be a team to watch out for in playoffs to potentially take down T1, obviously, it's still DK. I think DK is in another good spot here to dominate the opposition and put up good scores in the process. DK will be owned, but full stacks may be somewhat sneaky tomorrow. Regardless of which BRO roster starts, they have shown to be a bloody team in losses recently. DK full stacks are a solid cash look and GPP look and will be a strong stack for me tomorrow.
Top DK plays: Deokdam, Canyon, Showmaker, Burdol, Kellin
LPL Matches
3:00 AM: RNG (-407) vs. UP (+308)
We head over to the LPL where fourth place RNG faces the playoff eliminated UP. RNG is the most expensive stack on the slate and has some ceiling potential here in a match vs a bloody and aggressive UP team. They fit well with RA as a full-stack and are also coming off a loss to Team WE. It was an embarrassing sweep but they clearly were caught slacking and underestimated their opposition. I don't see that happening again here as JDG and LNG are right behind RNG in the standings. However, UP is arguably a better team than Team WE, so the challenge won't be a breeze. We know UP has a top-tier ADC in Elk, and Cryin will be laser-focused facing off against his old team. RNG looked like the strongest team in the league up to the point where they got swept last week, but I expect a solid bounceback here.
RNG is a great play tomorrow but arguably UP may be a better play due to their ownership compared to their chances of being optimal. RNG is a bloody team in their losses, and UP is playing with nothing to lose. That being said, I still prefer the favorites here, as I mentioned before they are playing for playoff seeding and could afford their loss last series. It's likely RNG could be the optimal full-stack tomorrow similar to TES this morning at their most expensive price points, but fitting them in with an underdog or jungle captain with another favorite is a strong option either way. By now you should know which route I prefer, and that is pairing them with an underdog to get a Gala or Xiaohu captain, which is what I will be focusing on tomorrow in GPPs while focusing on DK for cash most likely. I prefer Gala captain in GPPs, as Xiaohu is usually the primary carry but against a bot-centric team in UP, the action should be centered around the ADCs in this one. I will have a single prayer lineup with UP for value with an Elk and Cryin small stack, but it's a longshot.
Top RNG plays: Gala, Xiaohu, Wei, Ming, Bin
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5:00 AM: EDG (-184) vs. RA (+150)
This matchup features seventh-place EDG against the ninth-place RA. Both these teams are most likely getting into playoffs, and both are coming off a series loss. A win would definitely help improve their playoff seeding, but they would need a loss from the teams above them to potentially shoot them up the standings. This match doesn't appeal to me from a fantasy perspective, and I can also see this one going three games. RA is a team that isn't super dominant in their wins and doesn't give up a ton of kills in losses. EDG has been somewhat bloody in losses, and not particularly slate-breaking in their wins. It's a tough match to prioritize on this slate which is why I'm comfortable fading this one or getting to one-offs and team slot one-offs. I do prefer the EDG side here, as I have not been able to figure out this RA squad, and I do prefer the EDG squad with Flandre in the lineup.
Cube has arguably been the best performing member of RA recently with his Jayce and Gwen performances, but the bottom side lanes for RA spell trouble against the likes of Scout and Viper. RA has been more inconsistent than a lot of teams this season, as they stoop down to their opponent's level but also play up to their competition it seems. I am sticking with the better team here in EDG, with Viper and Scout leading the way to victory. I will be focusing on small stacks as mentioned, but full stacks of EDG are probably going to be under-owned and are a decent GPP play, and I may have a small share of EDG full stacks but will be prioritizing Viper, Scout, and team one-offs. RA could be the chalk underdog if not HLE, but I honestly feel more comfortable with HLE than I do RA.
Top EDG plays: Viper, Scout, FADE, TEAM, Meiko, Jiejie
7:00 AM: FPX (+201) vs. V5 (-252)
The 6 AM early morning hammer features the first-place locked V5 with Karsa back in against the tenth place FPX fighting to keep that last playoff spot. This projects as a bloody match since V5 is involved, and FPX has been a scrappy squad with Care entering the lineup. V5 being locked into first may bring some added spice to this fiesta, so right off the bat, I'm taking shots on FPX as my favorite underdog on the slate. They provide solid value to fit in RNG and DK, and will likely be a sub 10% owned stack in large field GPPs. Obviously, V5 is the better team, but since Care entered the lineup, this FPX team looks re-invigorated and has improved in plenty of team stats categories. They are winning games more convincingly and as mentioned are willing to scrap more, as opposed to when Gori was the starting mid laner. Clid looks more comfortable recently on the picks like Viego, and Care has a champion pool that Gori was not comfortable on, and it's benefitting this FPX squad.
I do think V5 will end up chalky as well due to their pricing, and ability to fit them in with NS for example, and even RA. These recent FPX drafts have been great, and while V5 usually doesn't stray away from their strengths in the draft phase, it's possible they get caught slacking like RNG since they have already locked in first. Rookie may be the best performing mid lane in the world right now, so if Care sticks to the champs that can mitigate losses and play for his stronger side lanes, then there's definitely an avenue to victory for FPX. FPX is a fantastic GPP play tomorrow in full stacks and small stacks, and I want all of them. Xialaohu has been a breakout top laner this split and Lwx/Hang have performed admirably and have a strong laning phase, enough to keep up with Photic and Ppgod. I do prefer this new style FPX who like to scrap and skirmish early, which is what V5 is always looking to do. Fight fire with fire here, and with FPX having a slight advantage in vision numbers, I hope that they can create plays and fights that put them in an advantageous position to win this series. The problem for FPX all season has been setting up/converting Baron attempts, so let's hope that isn't their bane tomorrow. Fading V5 completely is definitely not the optimal move, but it's where I'm at tomorrow in hopes of RNG/FPX being the takedown stack.
Top FPX plays: Lwx, Xialaohu, Care, Clid, Hang
Summary
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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